LONDON : Seven of the 10 big developed-market central banks tracked by Reuters have now started easing policy, with expectations of how quickly each will move swinging back and forth as policymakers stress data dependency.
Here’s where major rate-setters stand and what traders expect next.
1/ SWITZERLAND
Demand for Switzerland’s haven currency gave its central bank less of an inflation problem than other rate setters when commodity costs soared after Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion.
The Swiss National Bank now faces prices falling too far.
Swiss inflation has softened to 0.8 per cent year-on-year, enabling the SNB to follow up a rate cut to 1 per cent in September with more easing that could boost exporters suffering from the franc’s persistent strength against the euro.
Money markets price strong odds of Swiss rates dropping to 0.5 per cent by March 2025.
2/ CANADA
Rates markets show traders fully expect the Bank of Canada to lower rates for its fourth consecutive meeting on Oct. 23 and see even chances of a jumbo 50 basis point cut to 3.75 per cent.
Canadian inflation has eased to 2 per cent, the economy is sluggish, pessimistic businesses reckon still-high rates are curbing demand, and the BoC has reported concerns about rising consumer credit distress levels.
3/ SWEDEN
Sweden’s Riksbank, which started cutting rates in May after its hikes crushed inflation but hastened an economic downturn, is now trying to jump-start growth.
It cut rates to 3.25 per cent in September and guided markets to fully price further back-to-back cuts in November, December and January.
4/ NEW ZEALAND
Inflation in New Zealand dropped to 2.2 per cent in the second quarter, the first time it has been within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1-3 per cent target range since March 2021.
That leaves the RBNZ with room to continue its
