BEIJING – China’s outbound shipments grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in October as manufacturers rushed inventory to major export markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the United States and the European Union, with the threat of a broader trade war looming.
With Donald Trump being elected as the next US president, his pre-election pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60 per cent is likely to spur a shift in stocks to warehouses in China’s No.1 export market.
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-largest economy grew 12.7 per cent year on year in October, customs data showed on Nov 7, blowing past a forecast 5.2 per cent increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 2.4 per cent rise in September.
Imports fell 2.3 per cent, compared with expectations for a drop of 1.5 per cent.
The trade surplus in October came to US$95.7 billion (S$127.3 billion), the third-highest month on record.
“We can anticipate a lot of front-loading going into the fourth quarter, before the pressure kicks in come 2025,” said senior economist Xu Tianchen at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real.”
Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan pointed to cooling global demand, while German manufacturers have also reported they are struggling to find buyers overseas, leading analysts to conclude producers are slashing prices to find buyers or simply moving stocks out of China.
But exporters also had help from a positive turn in the weather, enabling them to send out delayed orders.
Typhoon Bebinca brought Shanghai to a standstill for one day in September, causing severe disruption to one of China’s busiest ports.
In the eastern province of Jiangsu a violent tornado killed at