BEIJING – China posted its slowest growth in a year and a half on Oct 18, as Beijing struggles to steady an economy shaken by sluggish spending and persistent property sector woes.
The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.6 per cent in July to September, official data showed, a touch above a 4.5 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll, but below the 4.7 per cent pace in the second quarter.
Authorities have sharply ramped up policy stimulus since late September, but markets are waiting for more details on the size of the package and a clearer road map to put the economy back on a solid longer-term footing.
Officials addressing a post-data press conference on Oct 18 expressed confidence the economy can achieve the government’s full year growth target of around 5 per cent, underpinned by further policy support and another cut to the amount banks must hold in reserve.
“Based on our comprehensive assessment, the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the stabilisation and recovery trend that occurred in September. We are fully confident in achieving the full-year target,” Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of China’s statistics bureau, told reporters.
Policymakers could take some comfort in forecast-topping industrial output and retail sales data for September, but the property sector continued to show sharp weakness and underline markets’ calls for more support steps.
“I doubt that these numbers are affected by stimulus announced in September,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP. “It doesn’t really change the story much on China. It’s continuing to grow, but at a pretty subdued pace by historical standards.”
A Reuters poll showed China’s economy is likely to expand 4.8 per cent in 2024, undershooting Beijing’s target, and growth could cool further to 4.5% in 2025.
Property pains
On a quarterly basis, the
