China’s solar goes from supremacy to oversupply

BEIJING – Strong state support and huge private investment have made China’s solar industry a global powerhouse, but it faces new headwinds, from punitive tariffs abroad to a brutal price war at home.

Officials meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November for the United Nations COP29 climate summit hope to agree on new finance targets to help developing countries respond to climate change, including ditching fossil fuels.

In 2023, countries agreed to triple global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.

China is installing almost twice as much solar and wind power as every other country combined, plus it dominates the market.

It makes eight out of every 10 solar panels and controls 80 per cent of every stage of the manufacturing process.

It is also home to the world’s top 10 suppliers of solar panel manufacturing equipment, and its related exports hit a record US$49 billion (S$64 billion) in 2023, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

This supremacy is not accidental: Chinese state support has been key, analysts say.

Beijing invested more than US$50 billion in new solar supply capacity from 2011 to 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.

The industry has also benefited from access to cheap raw materials, readily available capital from state-owned banks, and huge engineering manpower.

“Chinese producers were ahead of everyone else on cost,” said Mr Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a climate think-tank.

“That meant new investment takes place in China, because that’s where it’s most competitive,” he told AFP.

Mr Johannes Bernreuter, a long-time solar industry analyst, said the focus has driven a “steep learning curve… both in solar cell technology and manufacturing know-how”.

This, in turn, has created “an efficient industry ecosystem”, he said.

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The Straits Times: