This report is from this week’s CNBC’s “Inside India” newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
The big story
The investment world has quickly swapped its insignia over the past couple of weeks. But that’s justifiable when one’s allegiance is entirely geared toward investment returns.
China appears to have become the preferred investment destination for market participants after Beijing unveiled its most aggressive monetary stimulus package since the coronavirus pandemic, coupled with support for its flailing property market.
China’s CSI 300 index has gained about 25% since the stimulus measures were announced. Meanwhile, India’s Nifty 50 has fallen by more than 3.5%. Seven of the past 10 trading days have been losers for Indian equities, while China stocks have risen every day except one, according to CNBC’s count.
The causal link between the two equity markets over the past two weeks raises the question of whether stellar returns in India have come at the cost of falling Chinese asset prices over the past four years. More importantly, could this reverse in the near future?
In the short term, there appears to be some evidence linking China’s gain to India’s losses. Citi strategists cautiously observe that “when there were significant outflows from China, we have seen a similar pick up in inflows to India”.
“While fund flows are fungible and it’s difficult to attribute the direction of flows, we would not be surprised if investors begin taking profit from overweight India positions to fund closing China underweight positions,” said Chris Ma, head of Asia quantitative research at Citi.
In addition, Berstein’s Rupal Agarwal downgraded India to “Underweight”