The great German statesman Otto von Bismarck is reputed to have said that “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America.” He might not have actually said that, but it captures the sense that many around the world have about America’s continuing ability to “surprise on the upside,” in the words of a businessman friend of mine. But it remains unclear whether the incumbent party, the Democrats, will be able to benefit from this good fortune.
The latest evidence for its “special providence” is that the United States appears to be doing the near-impossible: getting inflation down far and fast without triggering a deep recession. Alan Blinder, a former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, points out that, using strict definitions, the United States has been able to achieve an undeniably soft landing only once before in the past 60 years. In recent remarks, Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, has all but declared victory, and he deserves considerable praise for getting the balance of policy about right through some very treacherous times. The U.S. economy has low inflation, low unemployment, a boom in manufacturing and dominance in technologies of the future, such as artificial intelligence and gene editing. Even inequality, which has soared for decades, has recently abated.
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