I received this question in the Telegram group this week:
Hi all, don’t mind this fairly elementary post.
I’m a local Singaporean (late 20s) that’s back to SG and having my first job here again.
Would like to grow my money for a house while I’m working full time.
I’m on endowus && stashaway “DCAing”, but the process seems slow.
And that really got me thinking.
Let’s say I were looking to grow my money aggressively for the next 6 – 12 months.
How would I go about investing my money?
What are the possible scenarios in the next 6 – 12 months?
I wrote a macro update for FH Premium subscribers early this week.
In there, I set out 3 potential scenarios for how the next 6 – 12 months might play out:
1.Inflation goes up
2.Inflation continues going down (or stabilises):
a) with rise in unemployment (hard landing)
b) no rise in unemployment (soft landing)
As to the probabilities of each?
This was what I wrote:
I would say the updated probabilities are roughly:
Inflation – 25% (a): Hard landing – 35% (b): Soft landing – 40% Key events to watch out for?
The key events that will influence the outcome are:
How quickly Powell cuts rates (market has now priced a 25 bps cut for Nov due to the strong jobs report) Who wins the US elections in Nov (Trump would be bullish for the US economy, Harris would be more of the same) Whether China follows through on its fiscal/monetary stimulus (a follow through would be very bullish for Asia/commodities given the size of China’s economy) Wildcard – any escalation in the Middle East conflict How would I position my portfolio?
As you can see, there’s a very