TOKYO – Bags of rice are expected to start filling the shelves of Japan’s supermarkets again soon as farmers harvest their new crop, though the increase in supply will do little to tame higher prices.
Japan’s commercial rice stockpiles – already depleted after hot weather baked the 2023 crop – shrunk to the lowest on record in June as an influx of tourists lifted consumption.
Panic buying following typhoon and earthquake warnings exacerbated the shortage, and some retailers had to limit sales.
The harvest ramped up in September and will ease the supply squeeze, but farmers and Japan’s main grain distributor have agreed to higher contract prices.
That will be passed on to consumers who were paying 2,871 yen (S$25.80) for a 5kg bag in central Tokyo in August, 23 per cent more than a year ago.
“We’ve almost run out of stockpiles,” said Mr Ryuji Imai, the owner of Isego in northern Tokyo, a 300-year-old rice shop.
It is the first time he has experienced this level of scarcity since taking over the store in 2006, and Mr Imai expects prices to be as much as 50 per cent higher once supplies are replenished in October.
Japan’s rice production has been on a downward trend since the late 1960s, in part due to an ageing farming population and government policy, which provides incentives for farmers growing other crops such as wheat.
A changing climate has raised concerns about output and future food security.
The international market could offer some relief, but Japanese consumers have typically shunned foreign rice in favour of domestic grain. Overseas prices are also elevated after India implemented export curbs in 2023.
Rising Inflation
The price of a 60kg bag of unpolished rice sold to wholesalers by Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA)