The minutes of the July 31st FOMC meeting released today tell us it’s now virtually certain that the Fed will cut rates at the September 18th FOMC meeting. The only question is by how much. The market has already priced in a cut to 5.0%, and 4.8% is not out of the question at all—the market expects the funds rate to fall 200 bps over the next 12 months. Thanks to these anticipated cuts, the 10-yr
