NEW YORK :Global stocks slipped for the first time in three sessions while shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields dipped as slightly higher than expected U.S. inflation data and a jump in weekly jobless claims did not diminish expectations the Fed will cut rates in November.
U.S. consumer prices rose (CPI) slightly more than expected in September amid higher food costs, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years. The Labor Department said the consumer price index increased 0.2 per cent last month after gaining 0.2 per cent in August, slightly above expectations of economists polled by Reuters for a 0.1 per cent rise.
In the 12 months through September, the CPI rose 2.4 per cent versus the 2.3 per cent estimate.
Other data showed weekly initial jobless claims jumped 33,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 258,000, well above the 230,000 estimate, although the climb was partially attributed to distortions from Hurricane Helene.
The data helped solidify expectations the Federal Reserve with cut interest rates next month, with CME’s FedWatch Tool showing markets pricing in an 87.1 per cent chance for a cut of 25 basis points (bps), up from 80.3 per cent in the prior session.
The market had been pricing in a 32.1 per cent chance for another outsized cut of 50 bps a week ago.
“Inflation was a little hotter than expected in September. Inflation expectations move in tandem with energy prices, so the Fed will have to start giving equal airtime to worries about inflation moving higher and the economy slowing. Goods price deflation won’t be enough to counterbalance higher energy and food prices,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
“The market swung from thinking the Fed was too timid in its rate cut